Friday, May 18, 2012

The New 3-Bar BOHICA Setup w/Confirmation

Looking at the recent price action I can only be reminded of August 2011 and when we saw liquidation at its finest.  When institutions have to sell, they sell.  Looking at the chart you can see that technical support levels, Fibonacci Retracements, moving averages, etc. are ignored.  With todays price action and close at lows, I am now looking for what I call the BOHICA setup followed w/confirmation.  As @chessNwine states in his blog posts and daily market recaps, these candle patterns need confirmation.  So the BOHICA pattern confirms...just to the downside.  While there may be another name for this as I did not do much research, I prefer this name because it can be no fun as violent price action is the result.

The Setup:1) Capitulation looking move with a large range candle opening near the high and closing near the lows
2) A Hammer Candle preferably near a support level, causing the aggressive to front run and load up (Bend Over)
3) Another capitulation looking move w/candle similar to the 1st candle closing below the hammer's low (Here It Comes Again)

The Results:Complete violence that tears at the psychology of the aggressive trader that tries to front run any move only to get severely thrashed around with violent up days and violent down days.

Will we ever see this again, I don't know but when we have action similar to that of recent, always keep in mind that patterns can repeat themselves and the prudent trader will wait for confirmation to increase his exposure.

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